Does INDIA's No-Trust Motion Have A Chance? What Numbers Say

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PM Narendra Modi had faced a no-trust vote in 2018.

New Delhi:

The Lok Sabha will witness a fierce debate today as the Opposition brings a no-confidence motion against the BJP-led government. The Congress party, backed by other members of the INDIA alliance, has called for a no-trust vote against the government.

A major part of the ongoing Monsoon session, which began on July 20, has been mired by chaos and ruckus over the ethnic clashes in Manipur that have left over 125 people dead, thousands displaced and new tales of unspeakable horrors each day.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is likely to be the lead speaker of the opposition bloc, with the vote expected on Wednesday or Thursday after both sides have presented their cases.

What Is A No-Confidence Motion

A no-confidence motion is a parliamentary tool used by the opposition to express its lack of confidence in the government. The ruling party must then prove its majority in the House to maintain confidence. If it loses the majority, the government will fall immediately. The government can remain in power as long as it has the majority in the Lok Sabha.

Current Strength In Lok Sabha

The numbers are comfortably stacked in favour of the government and the Opposition is expected to utilise the opportunity to demonstrate its newly firmed-up unity to take on the Narendra Modi-led BJP in the Lok Sabha elections next year.

The Lok Sabha currently has 539 members who will vote in the motion, of which the majority mark will be 270. The BJP alone has 301, while its allies have had 31 more votes.

The opposition INDIA alliance has 143 while parties like KCR's BRS, YS Jagan Reddy's YSRCP, and Naveen Patnaik's BJD have a combined strength of 70.

YSRCP (22) and BJD (12) are also expected to back the government.

Expected Outcome

The government is expected to sail through the no-trust vote with nearly 366 members already having pledged their support.

The opposition INDIA alliance has a strength of 143, and could also win 9 more votes of the BRS taking their tally to 152.

Why Is The Opposition Seeking A No-Trust Vote

The Opposition has been demanding a discussion on Manipur, dubbing it the burning issue of the day. The government has agreed but made it clear that the Prime Minister will not address the House on the issue -- which has been the Opposition's big demand.

Despite the no-confidence motion by opposition parties being likely to fail the numbers test, they argue that they will win the "battle of perception" by cornering the government on the Manipur issue during the debate. The opposition contends that this strategy will compel the Prime Minister to address the crucial matter in parliament.

Has Modi-Led Government Faced A No-Confidence Motion

The Narendra Modi-led government faced a no-trust vote in July 2018, which was moved by Srinivas Kesineni of the Telugu Desam Party. After around 11 hours of debate, the government defeated the motion with the backing of 330 MPs.