This summer has the potential to be a nightmare for those looking to travel, domestically or abroad. A combination of pandemic-related problems that permanently changed airlines are coming back to haunt travelers who once enjoyed discounted prices in past summers, along with inflation and higher demand, are all lining up to make this summer one that many travelers might want to forget.
Luckily, if you’re reading this before mid-April, there is still a chance for you to travel this summer without having to sell your overpriced used car.
Why will summer flight prices be so expensive this summer?
Good news first: Flight prices should not be as expensive as they were last summer, for the most part, according to Hopper’s Consumer Travel Index Q1 report. They will, however, still be more expensive than pre-pandemic levels. Summer flights will continue to climb until the peak of summer, reaching an estimated average of $350 for domestic flights. That’s about 11% lower compared to 2022 but 10% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Demand to travel is one of the reasons you should expect to pay up this summer. According to the 2023 Spring Travel Forecast from Airlines for America, more Americans will be flying this spring and summer than they did before the pandemic. At the same time, seat supply on the travel industry has yet to recover after pandemic layoffs, Brian Sumers, editor of The Airline Observer, tells The Points Guy. A combination of lack of pilots, airport staff, and retired planes means there are fewer seats available for travelers. But high demand and low supply is not the whole picture.
Unsurprisingly, inflation is also a factor keeping you from scoring affordable travel this summer. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, airline fare prices have gone up 26.5% from Feb. 2022 to Feb. 2023. One of those factors is the price of jet fuel, which while it has fallen at the micro level, it is still high when looking at the price historically, according to the the International Air Transport Association.
Is it too late to buy summer flights?
There is still time to buy flights before prices get ridiculous, but you need to act fast. At the very least, start tracking flights with Google Flights and Hopper. Remember that flights are just one part of the equation for traveling: You will need lodging and transportation as well, which will be more expensive with fewer options the longer you wait.
If you’re flying domestically
Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist, tells The Points Guy that the best time to book summer travel when flying domestically is two to three months ahead. So if you start now, you are looking at the window right before the peak of summer. If you want to book for the long Memorial Day weekend, you should buy your flights before the first week of April.
If you’re flying internationally
As is the case with flying internationally in the airport, you want to do it a bit earlier than domestic flights. Berg tells The Points Guy to book three to five months in advance. This means you should be looking at international flights now if you want to fly in July or August.
