DES MOINES, Iowa -- For more than a year, the Democratic presidential contenders have been camping out in Iowa, pitching their case to the first-in-the-nation caucusgoers for why they should be the party’s nominee in July.
From campaign stops to house parties to rallies in every corner of the state and across Iowa's 99 counties, the candidates took to the stump to outline their vision for the country, rebuke President Trump, call for party unity, and make subtle contrasts with their rivals all in the hopes of persuading some of the most coveted primary voters to back their campaign.
But now with caucus day here, the highly-competitive race is entering an even more critical phase: regardless of the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of Monday’s caucuses, a winnowed field could emerge from the Hawkeye State -- underscoring the pressure on the candidates to excel in the first contest out of the gate.
Signage for the Iowa Caucuses hang in downtown Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 25, 2020.
Signage for the Iowa Caucuses hang in downtown Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 25, 2020.AFP via Getty Images, FILE
In the last few weeks, most of the Democratic field -- aside from the four senators stuck inside the U.S. Senate chamber for Trump’s impeachment trial -- have hunkered down in Iowa, making their strongest and most forceful play for caucusgoers, even if it means sharpening their attacks on each other.
The candidates’ closing arguments, which are often threaded into their stump speeches and echoed in TV and digital ads, all center on a refined answer to the question of electability and also show the nuanced differences between the presidential hopefuls, particularly the top tier.
Biden leans into contrast with Trump to close out Iowa campaign
In the waning days of the campaign in Iowa, former Vice President Joe Biden has leaned heavily into the message that he is the candidate that can best unify the Democratic party and withstand a bruising general election campaign with President Trump.
In a speech billed as a pre-buttal to Trump's rally in Des Moines on Thursday, Biden argued that the "character of the nation" is on the ballot in the 2020 election.
"Does it matter if a president lies? Does it matter if a president has no moral compass? Does it matter if a president believes they're above the law? Does it matter if a president is petty? Mean? Cruel? Spiteful? Does the character of a president matter? I believe the answer to each and every one of those questions is 'Yes,'" Biden told a crowd in Waukee.
Biden continues to lean into that message of moral leadership to contrast himself with Trump, relying on his decades of experience to win over an undecided electorate.
"The reason I’m running is because of my experience," Biden said on "Good Morning America" Friday. "With experience comes a little bit of judgment and wisdom, and I have a record of pulling things together."
"I'm running because of the fact I have this experience, not in spite of the fact that I have this experience," he added.
He’s also focused on signaling to Democrats that he is the safest bet in 2020 as voters weigh their final decision.
"This is no time to take a risk. We need our strongest candidate. So let’s nominate the Democrat Trump fears the most. Vote Biden. Beat Trump," one of Biden's closing ads says.
Sanders touts organizing prowess to make electability case
A key cornerstone of both of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential bids in 2016 and 2020 is his ability to cultivate support from a segment of voters either disengaged from or new to the political process.
Despite the Senate trial forcing him to break from the campaign trail -- as the insurgent Democrat is steadily climbing in state and national polls -- Sanders’ unique ability to draw massive crowds that skew younger continues to shape the contours of his campaign.
In the weekend just before the caucuses, Sanders spent about 30 hours in the state, making eight stops and covering roughly 300 miles on the ground.
Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders hosts a climate rally with Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Rep. Ro Khanna in Iowa City, Iowa, Jan. 12, 2020.
Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders hosts a climate rally with Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Rep. Ro Khanna in Iowa City, Iowa, Jan. 12, 2020.Scott Morgan/Reuters
In Indianola on Saturday, which marked his return to the stump after nearly a week in Washington, Sanders made the most of his face time with caucusgoers, arguing that his prowess as an organizer will give him a competitive edge to go toe-to-toe with Trump in a general election.
"To defeat Donald Trump, who will be a very formidable opponent for a number of reasons, we need to have the largest voter turn out in American history. That's just a fact," he told the crowd. "I believe that our campaign is the campaign of energy, is the campaign of excitement, is the campaign that can bring millions of people into the political process who normally do not vote."
"I think we are the strongest campaign to defeat Trump because we are developing the strongest grass roots movement in this campaign," he continued.
With more campaigns, and even Trump, taking notice of Sanders' well-timed rise, he continues to energize his base by taking on the Democratic establishment.
"Suddenly, Donald Trump is talking about our campaign. Suddenly the Republican National Committee is tweeting about our campaign," he said to a crowd of 1,100 people in Sioux City. "Suddenly we have the Democratic establishment very nervous about this campaign.”
"We are their worst nightmare. This is their 'Nightmare on Elm Street.’”
Mayor Pete pitches his political outsider status, youth as an edge
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg has spent the final days ahead of the caucuses arguing that his status as a Washington outsider is what the White House needs and utilizing his youth to cast himself as the candidate who can usher in a "new generation" of leadership.
Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg speaks at a Meet the Candidate campaign event, Jan. 31, 2020, in Sioux City, Iowa.
Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg speaks at a Meet the Candidate campaign event, Jan. 31, 2020, in Sioux City, Iowa.Win Mcnamee/Getty Images
"In the last half century in this country, every single time my party has won the White House, without exception, we've done it with a nominee who is looking to the future, moving past the arguments of the past, not a creature of Washington, and opening the door to a new generation," Buttigieg said at a town hall in Marshalltown. "That's how we win. And that's going to be more important than ever, because that is also how we will govern."
He continued to bring up that theme on Saturday, telling supporters in Anamosa, "If you're still making up your mind, then that's why I'm here to have one more conversation about how to win...I think it begins by ensuring that we don't give into the idea of having to choose between what it's going to take to govern well, and what it's going to take in order to win big."
In the final stretch, the 38-year-old Democrat has also more firmly emphasized his argument that politics are broken, even running an ad calling on Iowans to bring the country together at the caucuses, saying, "We can’t keep doing the same thing and expect different results."
Despite focusing his message on unity, at the same time, Buttigieg has started to invoke his rivals by name in the last week -- a significant shift for the former mayor who would previously only take veiled jabs at his competitors. Under pressure "to do very well" in Iowa, as he said in Waterloo on Saturday, he began directly targeting his top two opponents in the state just four days before Monday’s contest.
"We've got some respectful but serious differences about what it's going to take. I hear Vice President Biden saying that this is no time to take a risk on someone new. But history has shown us that the biggest risk we could take with a very important election coming up, is to look to the same Washington playbook and recycle the same arguments and expect that to work against a president like Donald Trump, who is new in kind," he said in Decorah on Thursday.
"Then I hear, Senator Sanders calling for a kind of politics that says you got to go all the way here and nothing else counts. And it's coming at the very moment when we actually have a historic majority, not just aligned around what it is we're against but agreeing on what it is we're for," he continued.
Pre-Iowa, Warren casts herself as a fighter who will win
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the only female presidential contender consistently polling in double-digits, has seen her numbers dip towards the end of 2019 and early 2020, amid questions among Democrats over electability, one of the key driving forces of support this cycle.
Despite the slip in polling, as part of her final push before Iowa, Warren continues to pitch herself as a fighter who can win by unifying a swath of voters behind her campaign, including Republicans.
Elizabeth Warren speaks during a Get Out the Caucus Rally event in Iowa City, Iowa on Feb. 1, 2020.
Elizabeth Warren speaks during a Get Out the Caucus Rally event in Iowa City, Iowa on Feb. 1, 2020.Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images
"If a former Trump supporter can be energized by Elizabeth Warren, then Elizabeth Warren is doing something great for America," an Iowa Republican who caucused for Trump in 2016 and is now planning to caucus for Warren says in a newly released ad running in Iowa.
"I've got courage. I've got a plan. I've got a willingness to fight, and I'm gonna start with something that not only our whole party can run on, but start with something that is really appealing to a lot of Republicans around the country," she also said during a tele-town hall with Iowans from Washington, D.C last week. "I think that gives us a good basis for winning. I get it. We're not going to get every Republican, but we are going to treat people with respect."
But Warren's fighter-centric message also comes as the former Harvard professor has pushed the debate over sexism in politics to the forefront of her campaign, after CNN reported that her progressive ally, Sanders, told her in a private meeting in December 2018 that he believed a woman could not win, which he has denied.
"When Donald Trump got elected, the world changed," Warren told supporters in Cedar Rapids. "Women candidates have been outperforming men candidates ever since. I just want to be clear: women win."
Sparring defines the last weeks of the Iowa race
Beyond Buttigieg’s naming names and the spat between Sanders and Warren, the frontrunners have spent the final weeks in Iowa more emboldened to spar with each other over their differences in an effort to distinguish their campaigns.
With polls showing Biden and Sanders in a dead heat, the former vice president most recently knocked the Independent senator by pointing out that Sanders is not "a registered Democrat."
"Well, he said he’s -- he’s, you know, he’s not a registered Democrat, to the best of my knowledge," Biden told reporters Thursday in Pella. "And Bernie has a different view. I mean, everything I’ve suggested to you that I wanna do, I figured out how to pay for. He’s acknowledged that he doesn’t even know how -- how he’s gonna do it. How do you get something done that way?"
The squabbles between the two elder statesmen come as both Biden and Sanders compete for the country’s blue-collar voters -- seeking to recapture the working class bloc that drifted to Trump in 2016.
Sanders, for his part, has spent weeks taking aim at Biden for various aspects of Biden’s long-standing record, both on social security and foreign policy, specifically his Iraq War vote. Sanders’ pivot to a much more bullish strategy to take on the leading Democrat highlights just how fierce the race has become without a clear frontrunner.
Despite his swipe, Biden, who has pushed for party unity since the onset of his bid, implored the rest of the field to not "let this Democratic race slide into a negative treatment of one another."
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020, in Dubuque, Iowa.
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020, in Dubuque, Iowa.Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
"We have to be able to pull the country together. Including not only Democrats," he told reporters Thursday. "We can't let this Democratic race slide into a negative treatment of one another. We can't let this happen. The temptation is too much for some running. We just can't do it. As Barack said, the last thing we need to do is form a circle, a circular firing squad."
But the leading candidates are also contending with a still unsettled contest, and a middle tier seeing some significant momentum. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has picked up steam throughout the first month of the election year, has spent the last few weeks leaning into her Midwestern values and her ability to win in "fly-over country," as she racks up endorsements from the New York Times, Iowa’s Quad City Times and a slate of former and current lawmakers.
Democratic presidential candidate and Sen. Amy Klobuchar speaks at a campaign town hall meeting in Mason, Iowa, Jan. 20, 2020.
Democratic presidential candidate and Sen. Amy Klobuchar speaks at a campaign town hall meeting in Mason, Iowa, Jan. 20, 2020.Ivan Alvarado/Reuters
Reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the contest leading into caucus night, when a number of Democratic contenders are seeking to upend expectations, less than half, 45%, of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers have made up their minds and said they could be persuaded to support another candidate, according to the most recent CNN/Des Moines Register poll from mid-January.
Iowa's significance overshadowed by diversity concerns
While the top tier jockeys for the top spot in the Iowa caucuses, the state is contending with challenges of its own over its outsize influence on the primary race and its homogeneous population that doesn't reflect the diversity of the Democratic Party or much of the rest of the country.
In 1976, four years after the state claimed it's position at the front of the calendar, then-candidate Jimmy Carter, an underdog in the presidential contest, snagged a surprise victory in Iowa -- putting his upstart campaign on a track to the nomination and setting the state on a course to become a marquee primary contest. Carter's victory soon became a model for ensuing presidential hopefuls who could seek to capitalize on the first-in-the-nation caucuses and catapult their campaign to notoriety.
But throughout the 2020 contest, which encompassed the most diverse Democratic field at its peak of candidates, Iowa has often been the target of criticism -- even by some presidential contenders -- for its lack of representation and diversity. The state is 91% white, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
But still, Iowa Democrats continue to defend the state's premier status and argue that it is diverse enough.
"Listen, I can't change the demographics of the state of Iowa. But what I can say is that by the nature of this process and helps elevate voices in a way that you don't see in a primary," Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price told reporters Friday. "We do have diversity here in the state and because of the caucus process, it is able to lift those voices up."
ABC News' John Verhovek, Molly Nagle, Adam Kelsey and Justin Gomez contributed reporting.
